International travel demand is expected to grow modestly in the first half of 2026, with Asian destinations leading global travel interest, according to new research by travel intelligence firm Mabrian.
The study, which analyses global flight search behaviour and international air capacity, covers travel demand between January and June 2026 and represents nearly 87% of worldwide travel searches. It shows that while overall growth is limited, demand patterns vary sharply by region.
International air capacity is forecast to rise by 5.9% year on year in the first six months of 2026, supporting a slight increase in international travel intent.
Asia remains the engine of global travel interest
Asia continues to dominate global travel inspiration, accounting for 31.7% of worldwide international travel demand.
Eastern Asia represents 16.3% of global demand, driven mainly by Japan, with travellers increasingly searching for destinations beyond Tokyo, including Fukuoka and Sapporo. South Korea and China also remain strong contributors.
Southeast Asia holds a 15.4% share, led by Vietnam, which Mabrian describes as a rapidly rising “bucket-list” destination. Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia are also seeing growing interest.
Gulf destinations gain ground
Western Asia, including the Gulf region, is strengthening its position, capturing 8.9% of global travel intent in early 2026. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are set to increase international air capacity by 3.6% over the period.
Cities such as Riyadh and Jeddah, along with Doha, are among the top 10 global destinations gaining market share, alongside Jakarta, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Seoul, Manila and Tokyo.
Traditional markets show softer demand
Some traditionally popular regions, including Southern Europe and North America, show a slight decline in travel intent for the first half of 2026. Similar trends are seen in Southern Asia and Northern Europe.
Mabrian noted that the data covers the shoulder season and early summer, excluding the peak summer travel period that typically boosts demand in these regions.
Caribbean demand weakens amid regional tensions
The research also highlights softening travel interest in the Caribbean, particularly from the United States and Europe, following instability in the region earlier this year.
US outbound demand for the Caribbean fell from 9.1% to 7.6% year on year between January and March 2026, with the sharpest declines affecting destinations such as Mexico’s Caribbean coast, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Aruba.
European markets showed a smaller decline, followed by a partial recovery that remains below last year’s levels.
Resilience in Western Asia
Despite recent unrest in Iran, travel demand to Western Asia and Gulf destinations has remained stable, with a slight dip in February followed by a rebound in March that exceeded last year’s levels.
Mabrian said this highlights the importance of a strong destination reputation in absorbing the impact of unexpected events.
Carlos Cendra, Mabrian’s Director of Marketing and Communications, said demand is becoming more diversified as travellers seek better value and alternative destinations.
Mirko Lalli, chief executive of The Data Appeal Company, added that data-led travel intelligence is increasingly vital for destinations to respond to volatility and shifting traveller behaviour.
