Conflict in the Middle East: a new era of aviation risk management

Amid the outbreak of conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, aviation stakeholders and operators have been closely following the constantly evolving situation, with many turning to risk intelligence to obtain insights into how to respond operationally.

One such provider, Osprey Flight Solutions, has hosted multiple situation update webinars to provide expert analysis on current developments and their implications for the global aviation sector.

On 4 March and on 1 April, the company took a detailed look at the conflict, covering the military strategy of Iran and the US, types of weaponry used and the consequences for the region’s airports and airspace.

Advanced conflict monitoring technology

Osprey is the leading aviation risk intelligence platform, supporting some of the world’s largest airlines, business aviation operators, and aviation stakeholders globally.

Speaker Matthew Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at Osprey Flight Solutions, gave a comprehensive overview of the impact of the fast-changing situation on airspace security, flight operations, and routing. Borie has over 15 years of experience in aviation security, especially in the area of overflight of conflict zones.

He outlined Osprey’s methods of detecting signs of conflict escalation using advanced technology, describing how on 14 January, Iran closed its airspace in preparation for a potential US attack.

However, the company correctly predicted that this attack would not take place by using satellite imagery and expert imagery analysis to monitor indicators like GPS interference spikes and a drop in military aircraft movements. In advance of the attack, it was able to inform its members of a strike window between 28 February to 1 March.

Osprey is also developing new and innovative ways to monitor conflict, such as light intensity, overhead IR and missile launch detection, and radar interference.

Impact on airports and airspace

The frequency of Iranian ballistic missile launches is continuing to decrease, especially against Israel, as Iran now has lower stocks of missiles capable of reaching it.

Osprey estimated that at the start of the conflict, Iran had around 50,000 drones, and that 200-500 drone launches a day was a realistic scenario. It now assesses that Iran has approximately 20,000 drones left.

It claims that the state is currently launching 100-150 missiles per day and could have 90 days of stores left if this frequency does not decrease. Though 90% of Iranian missiles in the region have been intercepted, the risks for passenger aircraft and airports remain heightened.

Last month, Borie highlighted that both the US and Israel were seeking to establish air supremacy in Iran. Several airports in Iran were struck, alongside airports elsewhere in the region such as Riyadh, Kuwait and Dubai. This resulted in flight cancellations by the vast majority of carriers.

Attacks on airports are still ongoing, with airport and airspace closures possible at short notice in several countries. In the early morning of 1 April, Iranian missiles hit fuel tankers at Kuwait International Airport in Qatar, causing no fatalities but resulting in infrastructure damage on the ground. The Qatari state’s heavy restriction of media and social media reporting has led to difficulties in evaluating the extent of the destruction.

Borie pointed out that Iran still has the capability to target air bases accurately; for example, the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia was recently hit by ballistic missiles and drones. Osprey believes that airports, on the other hand, are being targeted with individual drones, rather than large scale ballistic drone attacks.

There are also significant hazards involved for carriers overflying the Middle East at all altitudes. There have been historic incidents of misidentification of passenger aircraft in the region, notably the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, which was shot down by the by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in January 2020, allegedly in error.

Borie emphasised that operators should therefore not underestimate this risk, advising them to put contingency plans in place for use of alternative airspace and routings and employ experts to help look into these plans proactively.

Flight cancellations

According to data released by aviation analytics firm Cirium for Friday 27 March, cancellations are still continuing to affect some flights departing from the UK to the Middle East.

This shows reported cancellations for flights to the UK as of 14:00 UK for 27 March.

This shows reported cancellations by destination country as of 14:00 UK on 27 March.

Achieving an end to the war

As the war rages on, Borie explained that ceasefire talks need to reach an advanced stage or a humanitarian pause must be instigated in order to achieve de-escalation.

In response to the ongoing situation, operators need to undertake dynamic risk analysis to modify flight plans and routes, as well as prepare for short-term closures of airports and airspace, factoring this into operational planning, crew management, and evacuation plans.

Moreover, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran to shipping in response to US-Israeli attacks could have significant consequences for the aviation sector.

The closure has largely halted the flow of oil and gas from the Middle East, which provides around a fifth of the world’s supply. This risks supplies of jet fuel and will potentially lead to a surge in air fares.

Borie emphasised that the US must use either military or diplomatic methods to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and deal with the continuing short-range ballistic missile and drone threat from Iran. It remains to be seen whether this will be achieved.