Global demand for air travel is expected to more than double by 2050, according to new long-term forecasts from the International Air Transport Association.
The industry body’s latest projections suggest passenger demand could reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by mid-century under its central scenario, up from around 9 trillion in 2024. This represents an average annual growth rate of 3.1% over the period.
Growth scenarios and key drivers
Under a more optimistic outlook, demand could rise to 21.9 trillion RPKs, based on annual growth of 3.3%. A lower-growth scenario still points to a significant increase, with demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs on a 2.9% growth trajectory.
IATA said the range of outcomes reflects uncertainties around long-term economic growth, population trends, aviation fuel prices, the global energy transition and airline capacity.
Director General Willie Walsh said the outlook remained strong despite these variables, noting that rising demand for air travel would continue to support economic development and job creation worldwide.
Emerging markets to lead expansion
The report highlights uneven growth across regions, with emerging markets expected to drive the strongest expansion.
Asia-Pacific and Africa are forecast to grow fastest, with annual increases of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. By contrast, more mature markets such as Europe and North America are projected to expand at slower rates of 2.5% and 2.8%.
Some of the fastest-growing routes are expected to include intra-African travel, Africa–Asia-Pacific connections and intra-Asia-Pacific markets, underlining the importance of investment in infrastructure and regulatory frameworks in developing regions.
Long-term structural shifts
IATA said the aviation sector continues to feel the long-term effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, which created a lasting gap between actual demand and previous economic growth trends.
Unlike earlier downturns, demand is not expected to fully return to its pre-pandemic trajectory by 2050, even under higher-growth scenarios.
At the same time, growth in air travel is gradually slowing in percentage terms. Historical data shows average annual growth has declined from 6.1% between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5% between 1998 and 2024, with a further moderation to 3.1% projected through to 2050.
Planning for future capacity
Despite this slower rate of growth, the overall increase in passenger numbers is expected to place significant pressure on global aviation infrastructure.
IATA said the projections provide a framework for governments, airlines and energy providers to plan for future demand, stressing the need for investment in airport capacity, improved market access and regulatory alignment.
The organisation also highlighted the importance of supporting the aviation sector’s transition to cleaner energy, as rising demand will need to be balanced with sustainability goals in the decades ahead.
