Sophie Storey looks at data from Cirium and OAG that underlines how supply constraints are reshaping networks and boosting short-haul markets
Before the impact of disruption in the Middle East took hold, this summer was shaping up to be one of modest growth, as airlines continue to navigate familiar issues impacting supply and demand.
Initial Cirium schedules data for the summer showed a story of disciplined capacity growth through to mid-2026, consistent with the industry’s shift away from recovery-driven expansion.
Supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainty are pushing networks toward high-yield or affordable secondary markets, benefitting low-cost carriers (LCCs), short-haul routes, and those in growing markets like Asia.
Disciplined growth
Data from schedules specialist OAG showed this summer’s capacity was set to be up just 4% from 2019 pre-pandemic levels, a reflection of the ground lost during that period given that annual global capacity growth is normally in the range of 2-3%.
“The combination of the pandemic, subsequent supply chain issues, and geopolitical interventions have impacted normal rates of growth,” said OAG Analyst John Grant.
Progress is stifled by limited aircraft volumes caused by delivery and repair delays, particularly with Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 fleets. On top of supply chain challenges that have impacted production, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) restrictions remain in place following the in-flight failure of a 737 Max 9’s mid-cabin door-plug in January 2024. Regulators have, though, raised the cap on Boeing 737 Max monthly production from 38 to 42.
Ryanair said in its latest earnings call that it is now generally up to date with its Boeing deliveries, but also predicted European capacity is likely to remain “constrained” until 2030.
European budget rival Wizz Air, which has deferred aircraft deliveries as it moderates its long-term growth, remains affected by the ongoing Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engine-related disruption impacting its Airbus A320neo fleet. The airline has approximately 30 aircraft grounded due to the problem and expects an average of 20–25 aircraft to be grounded in the year to March 2027.
The engine groundings have hit a range of carriers including Frontier Airlines, IndiGo, Spirit Airlines, Turkish Airlines and Volaris. Most, though, are hopeful that last year was the peak in the related aircraft groundings and project increasingly more aircraft will be available from this point onwards.
Network reroutes
Geopolitical tensions are influencing aviation networks now more than ever.
Carriers from Europe, the US, and other countries that support Ukraine remain blocked from flying over Russian airspace following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While airlines like Finnair, British Airways, and Air France KLM still operate flights to Asia, they must take routes of up to four hours longer to avoid flying over Russian airspace, a limitation that Chinese carriers do not have to face.
Geopolitical volatility in parts of the Middle East was already having an effect, even before events in Iran disrupted services at a number of key hubs in the region. The full impact to Midde East services and wider industry capacity for this year remains unclear.
“If their traffic is interrupted, it has a significant ripple effect onto other routes and markets as well,” noted JLS Consultancy Director John Strickland of the region’s big hub operators, speaking even before the temporary airspace closures in parts of the Gulf hit the likes of Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways.
In the short term international carriers have adjusted their capacity into parts of the Gulf while air services in the region remain disrupted.
For example, Kazakhstan carrier Air Astana, which operated 42 weekly flights in the area – more than half of which were to Dubai – reassigned the bulk of that capacity, largely to Asian routes, within 48 hours.
Several airlines, meanwhile, reported a short-term lift in demand elsewhere as passengers looked for alternative routings between Asia and Europe. “We do see some temporary upsurge in demand, especially on routes which relied on Middle East [hubs] previously,” said Cathay Pacific Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Lavinia Lau, during the Hong Kong carrier’s full-year results briefing in March.
Strickland also noted the North Atlantic as a reliable place to add capacity and expect a good return. Airlines on both sides of the Atlantic have reported strong US point-of-sale demand.
Nonetheless, a number of European and North American countries have seen reduced numbers of passengers flying to the US since last year, with potential travellers deterred by strict immigration policies and political uncertainties.
“Canadian airlines have withdrawn around 10% of their historic capacity to the US in response to consumer sentiment,” added Grant from OAG.
Air Canada has also highlighted increased demand for sixth-freedom traffic via its hubs between Europe and Latin America, noting it increased revenues in this segment 10% in 2025.
Strategic reallocation
Due to current unstable international relations and capacity limitations, airlines are being smarter about their aircraft allocations. An increasing number are moving away from high-tax or low-profit zones to maximise returns elsewhere.
Much of Canada’s network, for example, has already been relocated to markets in the Caribbean ahead of the summer season.
Long-haul travel is less adaptable, with changes and lead times taking weeks if not months. Aircraft redeployment is much simpler on short-haul routes, where networks are denser and one aircraft can complete multiple flights a day.
For example, Ryanair is taking 1.2 million seats of its summer 2026 schedule out from the Spanish market in response to Aeropuertos Españoles y Navegación Aérea’s (AENA) high 6.6% airport charges.
The airline will stop all flights to and from Asturias Airport and reduce its capacity at other regional locations.
“Ryanair can easily place that capacity into other markets such as Poland, Ireland and new markets such as Albania,” said Grant.
Central Asia is experiencing some of the largest regional growth driven by emergent markets, digitisation, increasing international trade and consumer credit. “However, central Asia is one of the smallest regional markets in the world, so in absolute terms, it doesn’t really move the global needle,” Grant added.
Standout airlines
Initial data from Cirium, prior to any changes related to a prolonged impact from the Middle East crisis, projects several airlines will have significant year-on-year capacity growth this August compared with the same month in 2025.
Indian carrier IndiGo is set for more strong growth compared with August 2025, though the airline suffered high-profile operations disruption that forced it to cancel over 2,000 flights in December.
In the US, American Airlines is set to rise above Delta Air Lines with an increase in capacity this year. This puts the airline second only to United Airlines among US carriers.
Ryanair is expected to lead growth among European airlines, lifting capacity around 6% this August compared with the same month in 2025.
But Cirium expects the largest jump to come from Alaska Airlines. The carrier is forecast to increase capacity over 40%. This follows its earlier acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines and the launch of long-haul flights from Seattle to Asia and Europe this year.
Additional reporting Graham Dunn
