John Grant, Chief Analyst at renowned travel data company OAG explains what summer might bring and what industry issues will shape 2023’s holiday season.
Will there be another travel chaos this summer? Commentary from John Grant, Chief Analyst, OAG
“The memory of last summer is still vivid in many people’s minds. Endless queues, striking staff, lost or damaged luggage, cancellations and significant delays came together in a perfect storm of travel chaos. With strike action continuing across the UK, it is not unreasonable to wonder if this year’s summer vacations will also be under threat. This is especially timely following last weekend’s issues, from the failure of e-gates at all major UK entry points and the cancellation of 175 British Airways flights, causing disruption for Bank Holiday travellers.
“We have good news and bad news for travellers. On the one hand, global capacity numbers suggest steady recovery and give us a sense of optimism: global capacity will be back to around 95% of pre-Covid levels by summertime. That said, these numbers look less bright when put into context. Air travel has still lost out on four years of capacity growth and that 95% number is 15% below where we would have been without the pandemic – so many carriers will continue to struggle.
“The bottom line is, though there will be fewer challenges, it won’t all be smooth sailing – or smooth flying – this summer. Based on the widespread issues with e-gates and IT systems, we have reason the believe that passenger processing and handling will continue to be an issue. We are also expecting to see supply chain and transportation issues. These will disrupt the provision of necessary maintenance spare parts for aircraft and the scheduled delivery of new aircraft.
“Boeing, for example, are set to only produce about 50% of their planned aircraft output this quarter, which will certainly have negative implications for airlines all around the world. There is a similar issue impacting the manufacturing of engines in the most frequently used midrange aircraft types, such as the A220 or the Embraer 190, typically used on European or US domestic routes.
“The upside with such issues, compared to staff strikes, is their relative predictability. For aircraft operators, it is much more complicated to prepare for unexpected staff shortages than for delays in the provision of new aircraft. While these problems will still put a certain pressure on airlines, our expectation is that they will cope much better. With the continued uptick in demand and fewer setbacks, the industry is looking at a good summer. And as for travellers, they might experience some issues, but they will not have trouble getting to their desired destinations in the coming months.”
